UK: European elections 2019 as a proxy for 2nd Brexit referendum
For the UK, the European elections in 2019 can be seen as a proxy for 2nd Brexit referendum, one that resulted in Brexit rejection.
Since, if the UK is to leave EU anyway, the elections would be superfluous for their nominal purpose, i.e. choosing UK representatives to influence the future course of EU, and the elections could instead be used for a different purpose. A natural EU-related purpose is to poll the UK on whether its citizens want to implement Brexit, and thereby confirm or disconfirm the results of the 1st Brexit referendum from 2016. That purpose seems to have been used by the newly minted Brexit Party, a party whose existence might seem superfluous given the existence of UKIP, the UK Independence Party. The Brexit Party would not need to be much of a party proper; it would have to exist so that the voter can cast "I want Brexit implemented" as part of the European elections in 2019.
Assuming now for the purpose of further analysis that the elections were a de facto proxy 2nd Brexit referendum, what is the result? While the Brexit Party gained 29 seats, the total number of seats for UK is 73, of which 29 seats make up 39%. One might argue that those who really wanted Brexit implementation to go on voted for the Brexit Party rather than for any other party and that a vote for a non-Brexit party is one that disagrees with going on with Brexit. Thus, a person who would naturally vote for Conservatives or Labor would vote for the Brexit party in the EU election, doing so not in disagreement with Conservatives or Labor on UK level but rather in agreement with the Brexit proposal. However, I am not sure how strong the argument is. Assuming that argument, the quasi 2nd Brexit referendum resulted in Brexit rejection.
The above is rather speculative and uncertain. The only reliable way to find out the will of the people is to ask the people.
A politician supporting an actual 2nd Brexit referendum might argue as follows. The objective of a referendum is to determine the will of the people, similar to temperature measurement being there to determine the actual temperature. But what if the will of the people fluctuates, i.e. changes in time rather rapidly? Why should we rely on a single measurement rather than multiple measurements? And if the 2nd referendum would result in 60% in favor of remain, that would be a much stronger result (margin) than 52% in favor of exit. An objection could be that repeated referendums are fishing for results: you keep on repeating the referendums until you get the result you want. My view is that the objection does not really hold water. You cannot make an arbitrarily unacceptable policy proposal and pass it only by making a vote again and again; you would get clear repeated rejections. There is some force in the fishing argument, but not much.
An aside about the alleged "EU election humiliation" for Conservatives: if the above analysis is correct, the votes for Brexit Party were not really votes for a party or its members but rather for Brexit, and thus, many voters who still support Conservatives on UK level would have voted for Brexit Party. The humiliation would be merely apparent, and presenting no need for despair on part of Conservatives.
Links:
- 2019 European election results - United Kingdom, election-results.eu
- Remainers won these elections – and they’d win a second Brexit referendum, 28 May 2019, theguardian.com
- European Elections: What they tell us about support for Brexit, 27 May 2019, bbc.com
- Why the UK’s European election is not proxy Brexit referendum, 23 May 2019, politico.eu
- Britons Can’t Help but Make the European Elections All About Brexit, 21 May 2019, theatlantic.com
- Theresa May blames Brexit failure for EU election humiliation, 28 May 2019, theguardian.com
- The Brexit Party, thebrexitparty.org
Since, if the UK is to leave EU anyway, the elections would be superfluous for their nominal purpose, i.e. choosing UK representatives to influence the future course of EU, and the elections could instead be used for a different purpose. A natural EU-related purpose is to poll the UK on whether its citizens want to implement Brexit, and thereby confirm or disconfirm the results of the 1st Brexit referendum from 2016. That purpose seems to have been used by the newly minted Brexit Party, a party whose existence might seem superfluous given the existence of UKIP, the UK Independence Party. The Brexit Party would not need to be much of a party proper; it would have to exist so that the voter can cast "I want Brexit implemented" as part of the European elections in 2019.
Assuming now for the purpose of further analysis that the elections were a de facto proxy 2nd Brexit referendum, what is the result? While the Brexit Party gained 29 seats, the total number of seats for UK is 73, of which 29 seats make up 39%. One might argue that those who really wanted Brexit implementation to go on voted for the Brexit Party rather than for any other party and that a vote for a non-Brexit party is one that disagrees with going on with Brexit. Thus, a person who would naturally vote for Conservatives or Labor would vote for the Brexit party in the EU election, doing so not in disagreement with Conservatives or Labor on UK level but rather in agreement with the Brexit proposal. However, I am not sure how strong the argument is. Assuming that argument, the quasi 2nd Brexit referendum resulted in Brexit rejection.
The above is rather speculative and uncertain. The only reliable way to find out the will of the people is to ask the people.
A politician supporting an actual 2nd Brexit referendum might argue as follows. The objective of a referendum is to determine the will of the people, similar to temperature measurement being there to determine the actual temperature. But what if the will of the people fluctuates, i.e. changes in time rather rapidly? Why should we rely on a single measurement rather than multiple measurements? And if the 2nd referendum would result in 60% in favor of remain, that would be a much stronger result (margin) than 52% in favor of exit. An objection could be that repeated referendums are fishing for results: you keep on repeating the referendums until you get the result you want. My view is that the objection does not really hold water. You cannot make an arbitrarily unacceptable policy proposal and pass it only by making a vote again and again; you would get clear repeated rejections. There is some force in the fishing argument, but not much.
An aside about the alleged "EU election humiliation" for Conservatives: if the above analysis is correct, the votes for Brexit Party were not really votes for a party or its members but rather for Brexit, and thus, many voters who still support Conservatives on UK level would have voted for Brexit Party. The humiliation would be merely apparent, and presenting no need for despair on part of Conservatives.
Links:
- 2019 European election results - United Kingdom, election-results.eu
- Remainers won these elections – and they’d win a second Brexit referendum, 28 May 2019, theguardian.com
- European Elections: What they tell us about support for Brexit, 27 May 2019, bbc.com
- Why the UK’s European election is not proxy Brexit referendum, 23 May 2019, politico.eu
- Britons Can’t Help but Make the European Elections All About Brexit, 21 May 2019, theatlantic.com
- Theresa May blames Brexit failure for EU election humiliation, 28 May 2019, theguardian.com
- The Brexit Party, thebrexitparty.org
posted by Dan at 9:15 PM
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